The State Pension is the single largest source of income for most retirees. Without the triple lock, pensioner income growth would have lagged behind both inflation and average earnings throughout the cost-ofliving crisis, leading to widespread hardship.

Before the introduction of the triple lock in 2011, the value of the State Pension had been eroded significantly relative to earnings, dropping from 26% of average earnings in 1980 to 16% by 2010. The triple lock has since reversed this, raising the pension’s value to nearly 25% of average earnings by 2022 and reducing pensioner poverty from around 15-20% in the late 1990s to 10-12% by the mid2010s.

It is critical to maintain the triple lock’s link to inflation and establish a clear, stable relationship between the State Pension and average earnings to prevent a resurgence of pensioner poverty. The Institute for Fiscal Studies agrees with the Pensions
Commission’s recommendations to guarantee a stable, earnings-linked State Pension, implement gradual reforms to the triple lock, avoid means-testing, and carefully manage pension age increases to protect pensioner income and reduce inequality.

It is worth noting that two-thirds of today’s pensioners receive the lower Basic State Pension, which applied before 2016. These pensioners are more likely to be in poverty.